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HICP Set To Come In Just Below/At Estimate

EUROZONE DATA

With 92% of the countries by weight having reported their flash June estimates, Eurozone HICP is set to print 5.5% Y/Y for June by our calculations, vs 5.6% consensus coming into this week's national inflation readings, but it's a close call between 5.5-5.6%

  • 5.5% remains a decent estimate for core eurozone HICP (same as consensus coming into the week), with the readings this morning perhaps leaning the final estimate closer to an unrounded 5.4%.
  • On headline: Downside headline HICP misses for Italy, France and the Netherlands and a soft reading for Belgium (no consensus) have offset a slightly above-expected reading for Spain, an in-line Germany, and a high Austria (no consensus) print.
  • On core: The large Netherlands undershoot on inflation (with all major categories softening), and probably suggesting core dynamics weighed to the downside; French services cooled 0.1pp Y.Y to 2.9%, but on the other hand manufactured goods prices rose 0.2pp to 4.3% (INSEE noting a delayed start in Summer manufacturing sales this year).

Source: Eurostat, National Statistics Agencies, MNI

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