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HICP Steady As Expected; CPI Ticks Lower As State Data Indicated

GERMAN DATA

The German national flash June HICP print came in in line with expectations at +2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.5% cons; 2.8% prior) and +0.2% M/M (vs 0.2% cons and prior).

  • Headline, core and most major sub-components of national CPI inflation came in closely in line with MNI's tracking estimates based on the state-level data. Food inflation accelerated, as we expected, but the jump was less in magnitude then we had thought.
  • National flash CPI was +2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.3% cons; 2.4% prior) and +0.1% M/M (vs 0.2% cons; 0.1% prior). Core CPI (excl. food and energy) fell slightly to 2.9% Y/Y (3.0% prior).
  • Of the major sub-components, services CPI is the most closely watched and it remained at 3.9% Y/Y (3.9% prior), while goods CPI inflation fell to 0.8% Y/Y (vs 1.0% prior) amid energy printing firmer in deflationary territory.
  • The data provides some slight downside risks for tomorrow's Eurozone-wide print. Ahead of the German release, consensus stood at around 2.5% Y/Y for headline.
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