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High Beta FX Rallies on Hopes of Further Gas Flows to Europe

FOREX
  • Confirmation from the Kremlin that repairs on the Nordstream pipeline could prompt increased Russian gas flows into the continent helped soothe sentiment Friday, prompting outperformance of global equity futures as well as commodity-tied currencies. This resulted in AUD and NZD being the two best performers in G10.
  • Meanwhile, the June Nonfarm Payrolls report effectively gave the greenlight to further tightening from the Fed, with headline job gains coming in ahead of expectations (+372k vs. Exp. +265k) and Y/Y earnings stronger than forecast - complimented by upward revisions to the prior. The USD benefited from the release, but the strength faded swiftly into the close, putting the USD on track to close lower for the first time in over a week.
  • Elsewhere, the CHF slowly but surely slipped lower against all others in G10 having initially dropped alongside the EUR in early Friday trade, before a gradual recovery in equities further dented haven currency appeal. USD/CHF printed the best level since mid-June and the last SNB rate decision, putting the pair north of the 0.9740 50-dma.
  • Focus in the coming week turns to the US CPI report for June as well as the prelim University of Michigan survey, Chinese trade balance and the Australian jobs report.
  • The quarterly US earnings cycle begins, with early focus on the largest US banks and financial institutions. Among the largest in the coming week are JP Morgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo.
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