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High EU LNG Imports Fill Gap from Russian Supply

LNG

High LNG imports into Europe are helping to cover for missing pipeline flows from Russia.

  • Europe is heavily reliant on LNG for supply with Nord Stream having just returned from a 10 day outage and tomorrow due to fall from 40% of capacity to just 20%.
  • The US has now become the top LNG exporter in the first half of 2022 according to EIA with exports rising 12% versus 2H21 to average 11.2bcf/d. EU and UK have received 71% of US exports and the US is on track to surpass Biden’s commitment to supply an extra 15bcm of LNG to Europe this year.
  • LNG imports into Europe are up near 200mcm/d compared to seasonal normal levels of just 55mcm/d.
  • High TTF prices are continuing to encourage spot cargoes to Europe with the JKM-TTF spread as wide as 16.3$/mmbtu today. The Sep22 US netback to Europe is estimated as 43.09$/mmbtu while the netback to Asia is 28.15$/mmbtu.
  • The graph below shows net LNG imports into Europe compared to the 5-year range:

Source: Bloomberg

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