US DATA
Initial jobless claims surprised higher but remained at a healthy level last week whilst continuing claims continued a trend modest easing away from recent months. The combination continues to point to dampened re-hiring activity compared to much of 2024 but actual layoffs remain very low and don’t show signs of stress.
- Initial jobless claims were a little higher than expected at 217k (sa, cons 210k) in the week to Jan 11, falling just short of the payrolls reference period, after an upward revised 203k (initial 201k).
- The four-week average ticked 1k lower to 213k, a new low since Apr 2024 and a little further below the 218k averaged in 2019.
- In NSA terms, the increase from 307k to 352k is unusual but there can be seasonal adjustment quirks at the end and start of the year. Next week's data, which also coincides with the payrolls period, should be a better test.
- Continuing claims on the other hand surprised lower at 1859k (sa, cons 1870k) in the week to Jan 4 after an upward revised 1877k (initial 1867k).
- It continues to hold a pullback away from a recent high of 1898k in November.
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