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Higher Despite Supply-Positive Developments; Incoming Crude Demand Surge Debated

OIL

WTI and Brent are ~$1.00 higher apiece at typing, with both benchmarks a little under freshly-made highs at $120.99 and $121.95 respectively.

  • Looking to the Middle East, Saudi Arabia raised crude prices for customers in Asia by more than expected, mainly on raised demand forecast expectations for the region. The move saw major crude benchmarks catch a bid early in Monday’s session, with WTI and Brent building on six straight weeks of gains.
  • Keeping within the region, U.S.-Saudi relations continue to be in focus, with U.S. President Biden delaying a previously-flagged, possible trip to Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, RTRS source reports have since flagged that two Saudi delegations to the U.S. are expected to arrive in mid and end-June, led by the Saudi Commerce and Investment Ministers respectively.
  • Turning to energy demand expectations, debate re: an incoming rise in fuel demand has accordingly done the rounds in Asia, with participants looking to the U.S. driving season (noting that Chevron CEO Wirth stated late last week that he has seen little sign of demand destruction amidst high gasoline prices), a rebound in Chinese energy consumption, and a recovery in international travel/flights for cues.
  • On the supply side of the equation, worry surrounding the outlook for crude supply likely eased a little as Vitol Head of Asia Mike Muller suggested over the weekend that the U.S. may turn a “blind eye” to Iranian exports of crude amidst stalled nuclear talks in Vienna, while RTRS source reports have pointed to the U.S. allowing for Venezuelan crude to be shipped to Europe by as soon as July.
  • Elsewhere, Libya announced that it has restarted production at its largest (280K bpd) Sharara oilfield after a two-month halt.

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