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MNI EM China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 9

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Highlights of Bailey's speech appear balanced

BOE
  • Bailey's speech does look pretty balanced at first glance. He says in Feb they made a "very deliberate change to the way we described our view of the outlook. We moved away from what had effectively been a presumption at our previous meetings that further increases in Bank Rate would be required."
  • "We recognised, however, that further tightening would be required if there were to be evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures."
  • But the key part is here: "My reading of the evidence since our February meeting... is that the economy is evolving much as we expected it to."
  • "At this stage, I would caution against suggesting either that we are done with increasing Bank Rate, or that we will inevitably need to do more. Some further increase in Bank Rate may turn out to be appropriate, but nothing is decided. The incoming data will add to the overall picture of the economy and the outlook for inflation, and that will inform our policy decisions."
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