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Free AccessHighlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Dec 18/15:06 EST Dec 18
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Housing Starts for November (annual rate, million)
Tuesday, December 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
Starts 1.250m 1.200m to 1.337m -- 1.290m 1.135m
Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is
expected to slow to a 1.250 million annual rate in November after a
sharp increase in October. The NAHB index rose further in November, a
positive for the housing starts data.
Existing-home Sales for November (annual rate)
Wednesday, December 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
Home Resales 5.51m 5.40m to 5.60m -- 5.48m 5.37m
Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to accelerate
further to a 5.51 million annual rate in November after a small uptick
in October. Pending home sales surged in October, but were still down
modestly from a year earlier. Supply fell by 3.2% in October and remains
sharply lower from a year earlier, an indication that the supply
shortage continues.
Weekly Jobless Claims for December 16 week
Thursday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec16 Dec09 Dec02
Weekly Claims 235k 230k to 240k -- 225k 236k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to
rebound by 10,000 to 235,000 in the December 16 employment survey week
after a decrease of 11,000 in the previous week that pulled down the
four-week average by 6,750. Claims were at a level of 240,000 in the
November 18 employment survey week. The four-week moving average would
fall by 1,250 in the coming week as that 240,000 level in the November
18 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is
correct and there are no revisions.
GDP for Third Quarter (third estimate)
Thursday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 3Q17t 3Q17s 2Q17
GDP +3.3% +3.2% to +3.6% -- +3.3% +3.1%
Chain Prices +2.1% +2.1% to +2.1% -- +2.1% +1.0%
Comments: Third quarter GDP is expected to be revised unrevised at
a 3.3% rate of growth, while the chain price index is expected to be
unrevised at a 2.1% pace, suggesting analysts have changed their focus
to the fourth quarter when growth is expected to be a bit stronger.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for December (diffusion index)
Thursday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Oct17
Phila Fed 22.0 20.0 to 24.7 -- 22.7 27.9
Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to fall further to
a reading of 22.0 in December following a decline in November to 22.7.
The Empire State index fell modestly to 18.0 from 19.4 in November
Leading Indicators for November (percent change)
Thursday, December 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
Leading Index +0.4% +0.3% to +0.4% -- +1.2% +0.1%
Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by
0.4% in November. Positive contributions are expected from ISM new
orders, stock prices, and consumer expectations.
Durable Goods Orders for November (percent change)
Friday, December 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
New Orders +2.3% +1.2% to +4.0% -- -0.8% +2.4%
Ex-Transport +0.6% +0.3% to +2.0% -- +0.9% +1.3%
Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rebound by 2.3% in
November after a revised 0.8% decline in October. Boeing orders rose to
159 from 64 in October, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could rise
sharply. Orders excluding transportation are expected to post a more
modest 0.6% gain after a 0.9% rise in October.
Personal Income for November (percent change)
Friday, December 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
Income +0.4% +0.4% to +0.5% -- +0.4% +0.4%
Spending +0.4% +0.3% to +0.6% -- +0.3% +0.9%
Core Prices +0.1% +0.1% to +0.1% -- +0.2% +0.2%
Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in November,
as payrolls increased by 228,000, average weekly hours rose to 34.5
hours, and hourly earnings were up 0.2%. Current dollar PCE is forecast
to rise 0.4%, as retail sales surged by 0.8% in the month and were up
1.0% excluding a 0.2% decline in motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales
(also ex. gas) were up 0.8% in the month, as were sales excluding autos,
gas, building materials and food services, indicating underlying
underlying sales strength. The core PCE price index is expected to post
a 0.1% increase in November following 0.2% gains in the previous two
months, keeping the year/year rate should remain well below the 2%
threshold.
New Home Sales for November (annual rate)
Friday, December 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
New Homes 658k 638k to 705k -- 685k 645k
Comments: New home sales are expected to slow to a 658,000 annual
rate in November following sharp gains in the previous two months.
Unadjusted sales were up 19.6% from a year earlier before seasonal
adjustment. Home supply rose in October, though not enough to keep up
with sales growth, so the months supply dipped to 4.9 months. Even so,
there should be adequate homes available for sale when demand returns.
University of Michigan Survey for December (final)
Friday, December 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17f Dec17p Nov17
Consumer Sent 97.0 96.5 to 97.5 -- 96.8 98.5
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up
to a reading of 97.0 in December from 96.8 in the preliminary estimate,
but it would remain below the 98.5 reading in November.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.