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History Shows Strong Positive Seasonality In Early July For SP500

US
  • Even though uncertainty has been rising significantly in the past few weeks, US equities have constantly been reaching new record highs with the SP500 currently flirting with the 4,300 level.
  • First, an outperformance of the US Dollar relative to major DM and EM currencies has usually been associated with a strong performance in US assets (especially equities).
  • Second, even though volatility in equities tend to ease in the summer ('Sell in May and go away'), history has shown strong momentum in early July.
  • The chart below (source: LPL) shows the daily average returns of the SP500 since 1950.
  • Is the SP500 about to reach a new all-time high ahead of July 4?

Source: LPL

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