MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR at New Cycle Highs
Price Signal Summary – EUR at New Cycle Highs
- A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and Monday’s extension strengthens bearish conditions. The move down also reinforces the significance of the breach of 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. This level marked the mid-point of a double top on the daily chart. The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 5309.38, remains intact for now.
- A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Last week’s gains mark a continuation of the reversal on Feb 3. Note that moving average studies have crossed and are in a bull-mode position. The trend needle in USDJPY points south and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play for now, and the latest pullback appears corrective. The pair has recovered from last week’s low and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543.
- A bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend condition remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection.
- Bund futures are in consolidation mode and trading closer to their recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.56 next, a Fibonacci projection.Gilt futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. Last week, the contract traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 2024
- RES 1: 1.0889 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 1.0837 @ 05:51 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0571 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0501 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Last week’s gains mark a continuation of the reversal on Feb 3. Note that moving average studies have crossed and are in a bull-mode position - this highlights a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.0937, the Nov 5 / 6 2024 high. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0501, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a corrective pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2990 High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 1.2947 High Mar 10
- PRICE: 1.2883 @ 06:19 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 1.2768 Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: 1.2694 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2605 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28
The trend in GBPUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. MA studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a stronger uptrend. The pair has pierced 1.2924, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. A clear break of this level would open 1.2990, the Nov 8 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2605, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8462 High Jan 24
- PRICE: 0.8427 @ 06:35 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 0.8360/8331 Low Mar 6 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and the cross is again trading higher, today. Last week's rally highlights a clear short-term reversal and price remains above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Note that 0.8419, 76.4% of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg, has been breached. This paves the way for a climb towards 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8331, the 50-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle Low
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 152.21 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 149.33/150.10 High Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 147.19 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 146.54 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 146.02 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4 ‘24
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
The trend needle in USDJPY points south and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. Sights are on 145.92, the Oct 4 2024 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.
EURJPY TECHS: Short-Term Reversal
- RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 2: 161.80 High Jan 30
- RES 1: 161.28 High Mar6
- PRICE: 159.94 @ 07:34 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 158.65 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 155.60 Low Mar 4
- SUP 3: 154.80 Low Feb 28 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
EURJPY is holding on to its recent gains. Last week’s rally undermines a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a potential reversal. The cross has pierced resistance at 161.19, the Feb 13 high. A clear break of the hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 158.65, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 154.80, the Feb 28 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6364 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.6287 @ 07:54 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 0.6259/6187 Intraday low / Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
Recent gains in AUDUSD resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of gains and a stronger recovery would undermine a recent bearish theme and expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat and open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4473/4543 High Mar 10 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4424 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play for now, and the latest pullback appears corrective. The pair has recovered from last week’s low and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.4242, Mar 6 low. A break of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Oversold But Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14
- RES 1: 128.33 High Mar 10
- PRICE: 128.07 @ 05:30 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 126.64 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 126.56 2.500 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support
Bund futures are in consolidation mode and trading closer to their recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.56 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is now within range. Note that the contract is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 118.310 Low Mar 3
- RES 3: 118.090 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 117.850 Low Feb 20
- RES 1: 117.316 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- PRICE: 117.110 @ 05:58 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 116.250 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
A bear threat in Bobl futures remains in play, following last week’s sell-off. Short-term support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared. The subsequent impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards the 116.000 handle. The contract is in oversold territory. Gains would be considered corrective and a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Unwinding An Oversold Condition
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.762 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- PRICE: 106.675 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 106.530/405 Low Mar 10 / 6
- SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact following the latest steep impulsive sell-off. The contract has breached a key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear cycle is in oversold territory and the latest bounce is allowing this set-up to unwind. First resistance is 106.762, a Fibonacci retracement.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 92.63 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 92.29 @ Close Mar 10
- SUP 1: 91.67/90.71 Low Mar 7 / 6
- SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
Gilt futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. Last week, the contract traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is oversold, the latest bounce has allowed this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance is 92.63, the Mar 5 high.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 116.98 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 116.58 @ Close Mar 10
- SUP 1: 115.83 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition following last week’s steep sell-off. The move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at last Wednesday’s 118.56 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5439.29/5575.00 20-day EMA / High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5419.00 @ 06:43 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 5332.00 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5309.38 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5249.00 Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: 5185.00 Low Feb 4
The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 5309.38, remains intact for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. However, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal a possible reversal. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 5600.00.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Impulsive Sell-Off Extends
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
- RES 2: 5979.06 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5791.00/5912.01 High Mar 7 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5630.75 @ 05:52 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: 5558.00 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5523.00 Low Sep 11 2024
- SUP 3: 5499.25 Low Sep 9 2024
- SUP 4: 5444.55 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and Monday’s extension strengthens bearish conditions. The move down also reinforces the significance of the breach of 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. This level marked the mid-point of a double top on the daily chart and the break confirms the pattern and an important short-term reversal. Sights are on 5499.25, the Sep 9 2024 low. Firm resistance to watch is 5979.06, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $73.65 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $69.43 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Bearish conditions in Brent futures remain intact and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The latest sell-off has resulted in a breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a break of the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is unchanged at $73.65, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $73.33 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $70.36 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $68.36 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $66.10 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: $65.22 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $58.01 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 - 11 price swing
A bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.36, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2965.1 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2930.3/2956.2 - High Mar 7 / High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2899.8 @ 11:03 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: $2880.3/2832.7 - Low Mar 10 / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $2826.3 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend condition remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2826.3. The 50-day average marks a key support.
SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Remain In Bull-Mode Condition
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.765/33.397 - High Mar 5 / High Feb 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.287 @ 08:06 GMT Mar 11
- SUP 1: $31.587/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Recent weakness in Silver appears to have been a correction and last week’s strong gains reinforce this theme. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch lies at $31.587, the 50-day EMA, and $30.815, the Feb 28 low.