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H&M -9.5%, Spreads +4bps On Op Profit Miss, CapEx Outlook

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • Q4 Op Profit of SEK 4.33bn missed the consensus SEK 4.76bn while earnings of SEK 1.58bn were significantly below the consensus SEK 3.12bn.
  • Q4 OCF +41% YoY to SEK 9.2bn boosted by the release of working capital via inventory efficiency improvements.
  • EBITDA leverage of 1.4x from 1.7x against an updated target range of 1x-2x with financial net cash of SEK 9.36bn (in excess of 2024 maturities as per DDIS).
  • 2024 outlook includes increased costs from markdowns and a focus on improving inventory productivity and customer offerings. CapEx in comparable currency to be SEK 11-12bn, +~30% vs. 2023, with the goal of opening 100 new stores in 2024.
  • Daniel Erver appointed as new President/CEO, succeeding Helena Helmersson.
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