January 31, 2023 23:27 GMT
Holding Above 200-Day EMA
AUD/NZD is firmer in recent dealing as the New Zealand's Q4 Unemployment rate ticked higher, last printing $1.0960/70.
- Local banks ASB and BNZ now see the RBNZ raising the cash rate by 50bps this month, downgrading their calls from 75 bps previously. This is in line with OIS markets which are currently pricing a ~50bp hike at the next RBNZ meeting with a terminal rate of 5.25%.
- After breaking above the 200-Day EMA in the wake of last week's divergent CPI prints, the pair has mostly held above this level. Bulls look to break $1.10, opening up $1.1101, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep-Dec fall.
- Bears firstly look to close below the 200-day EMA at $1.0909 to turn the tide.
- In the swap space, the AU-NZ 2yr spread is now back to -120bps, versus a 145bps trough in January, although we are wider than levels seen late last week (-110bps).