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Holding Below $1.07

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD has held below $1.07 in recent dealing, the cross sits a touch off the base of the recent observed range. We sit at $1.0640/50.

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2 Year Swap rates, point to a potential recovery in the cross. Spreads have narrowed to -136bps having been as wide as -160bps last week, despite the narrowing rate differentials AUD/NZD is down ~0.7% in the same period.
  • Technically the downtrend remains firmly in place. Bears look to target year to date lows at $1.0588, a break through here opens 2022 lows $1.0471.
  • Bulls first look to break the 20-Day EMA ($1.0737) to turn the tide.

Fig1: AU NZ 2 Year Swap vs AUD/NZD Daily Spot

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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