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Holding Richer Ahead Of Key Pre-FOMC Data

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a reasonable retracement of a bid seen after softer than expected German regional CPI readings but still sit richer on the day. The front end only trims yesterday’s post-Q1 PCE sell-off but with greater reversal further out the curve, driving a net flattening over the two days with 2s10s at -56bps.
  • It comes ahead of an important data docket landing shortly before next week’s FOMC decision, plus additional interest in pre-market earnings releases including Aon, Chevron and Exxon Mobil as well as the Fed issuing its report on SVB’s supervision at 1100ET.
  • 2YY -2.7bp at 4.041%, 5YY -4.8bp at 3.543%, 10YY -4.7bp at 3.473% and 30YY -4.7bp at 3.703%.
  • TYM3 trades 11 ticks higher at 115-02+ with decent cumulative volumes of 440k. It’s off a session low of 114-17+ just below the 50-day EMA of 114-18+, which combined are seen as support, whilst resistance is seen at the high of 115-08+ before 115-30+ (Apr 26 high).
  • Data: ECI Q1 (0830ET), Core PCE & incomes/spending Mar (0830ET), MNI Chicago PMI Apr (0945ET), U.Mich consumer survey Apr final (1000ET), KC Fed services activity (1100ET).
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