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MNI NBP Preview - June 2024: Continued Rate Stability

Executive Summary:

  • The NBP is expected to keep interest rates unchanged again.
  • Recent inflation prints have been more benign but headline is re-accelerating.
  • Elevated core inflation and robust wage pressures are a source of concern.


Full preview including a summary of sell-side views here:

MNI NBP Preview - June 2024.pdf

The recent below-forecast CPI readings are unlikely to dissuade the National Bank of Poland (NBP) from keeping monetary policy settings on hold. A familiar set of factors, including elevated core inflation, robust wage growth, loose fiscal policy, and the uncertainty around the magnitude of the pass-through from administrative decisions to inflation expectations will probably feature in official communications again. Lingering risks and uncertainties will justify an on-hold rate decision coupled with guidance pointing to a high probability of longer interest-rate stability, possibly through the rest of this year.

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