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MNI Political Risk South Africa: Knives out for Ramaphosa as Zondo Report Ruffles RET Feathers Pre-NEC

Findings of the Zondo Commission’s inquiry into state capture have set the stage for a key political power struggle in 2022, with corruption and factionalism placed front and centre.

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Executive Summary:

  • Findings of the Zondo Commission’s inquiry into state capture have set the stage for a key political power struggle in 2022, with corruption and factionalism placed front and centre.
  • A patchwork of hung municipalities and socio-political landmines mark a contentious year for SA’s political landscape as we look towards December’s National Elective Conference and 2024 presidential elections.
  • Renewed anti-corruption inertia could make or break the foundations of Ramaphosa’s campaign to re-centralise power within himself and his faction this year - using public outrage to fuel an elimination of political rivals ahead of the December NEC.
  • We expect efforts from the RET faction to oust Ramaphosa to intensify this year in the lead-up to the conference. However, the likelihood of success is low with an additional but minor risk of a splintering of the ANC. This is not our base case, however, as it is unlikely that such a party would survive the breakaway.

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SA Politics 2022 Ramaphosa.pdf