Hopes have grown further that a.........>

EGB SUMMARY: Hopes have grown further that a global trade war could be averted

and this helped the S&P 500 gain a massive 2.7% and futures markets suggest

another 0.5% at the US open. Non-US equity markets rise more modestly. 

- Core bonds weaken slightly in risk-on world. The 10Y Bund is 0.7bp higher

today at 0.531%. 

- Peripheral markets remain firm within a risk-on world despite former Catalan

President Puidgemont's capture in Germany and Lega and M5S moving closer

together in Italy. Spanish, Italian and Portuguese 10Y spreads to Germany are

1.0-1.75bp tighter to Germany.

- Eurozone M3 data is at 0900BST and various Eurozone confidence indicators for

March are at 1000GMT. These are likely impacted by talk of trade wars and so

weakness might not solicit a strong positive reaction from bonds.

- There is no bond supply and markets were already thinning for the Easter break

yesterday. Italy is selling 6m bills.

- Attention is most likely on the equity markets today. 

- Spanish HICP surprised to the downside +1.3% Y/Y; +1.2% M/M; FEB +1.2% Y/Y