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Household Survey Shows Much More Weakness Than Establishment

US DATA

Lots of client questions about why the unemployment rate jumped so much given the large upside surprise (and revisions) in the headline payrolls number: the answer is simply that they are taken from different surveys.

  • The unemployment rate as noted above is taken from the Household survey (when employment fell 310k), and the overall payrolls number is taken from the Establishment survey.
  • We're still going through the report but the household numbers were so weak (biggest increase in unemployed since Apr 2020) at first glance they should be taken easily as seriously as the headline payrolls figure.
  • Employment gains in Household were the weakest since April 2022, and the "beat" of Establishment employment (+339k) vs Household (-310k) of 649k was the widest since April 2020.

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