MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY20.7 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1886 Thurs; -2.34% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Issue Record Volume of CNH Bills Next Week

CHINA DEC CPI +0.1% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +0.1%; NOV +0.2%: NBS

MNI BRIEF: US Hiring, Pay Growth Continue Downshift- ADP

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, January 8

MNI:AUSTRALIA NOV TRADE BALANCE A$+7079

MNI: AUSTRALIA NOV RETAIL SALES +0.8% M/M

MNI: UK DEC BRC SHOP PRICES +0% M/M, -1% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

AUSTRALIA: Housing Affordability Remains Poor, House Prices Diverge

AUSTRALIA
APACAustraliaBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Q4 CoreLogic home values were flat on the quarter to be up 5.3% y/y down from +1.3% q/q and 7.6% y/y in Q3. The capital city index fell in each of the three months in the final quarter driven by weakness only in Sydney and Melbourne. This levelling out in house prices, rising disposable income and stable mortgage rates have helped housing affordability to stabilise but at a particularly unfavourable level.

  • Mortgage rates are likely to fall during 2025 but the timing remains unclear. The OIS market has a full 25bp by the April 1 RBA decision and close to 3 cuts by year end. But the RBA remains highly data dependent and while it is becoming more confident that inflation is sustainably returning to the band, there is still further to go.
  • Flat Q4 house prices helped affordability to stabilise at 43% below trend but at this stage it is difficult to see a meaningful fall in dwelling prices which is needed to boost affordability but this hides state-based differences. In contrast, affordability is improving in NZ with falling rates and house prices.

Australia housing affordability vs valuation % deviation from trend

Keep reading...Show less
339 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Q4 CoreLogic home values were flat on the quarter to be up 5.3% y/y down from +1.3% q/q and 7.6% y/y in Q3. The capital city index fell in each of the three months in the final quarter driven by weakness only in Sydney and Melbourne. This levelling out in house prices, rising disposable income and stable mortgage rates have helped housing affordability to stabilise but at a particularly unfavourable level.

  • Mortgage rates are likely to fall during 2025 but the timing remains unclear. The OIS market has a full 25bp by the April 1 RBA decision and close to 3 cuts by year end. But the RBA remains highly data dependent and while it is becoming more confident that inflation is sustainably returning to the band, there is still further to go.
  • Flat Q4 house prices helped affordability to stabilise at 43% below trend but at this stage it is difficult to see a meaningful fall in dwelling prices which is needed to boost affordability but this hides state-based differences. In contrast, affordability is improving in NZ with falling rates and house prices.

Australia housing affordability vs valuation % deviation from trend

Keep reading...Show less