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(Z1) Bearish Trend Condition


(Z1) Bearish Price Sequence


(Z1) Off Recent Highs


(Z1)‌‌ Support Appears Exposed

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T-Notes consolidated a little above Monday's late lows in Asia trade, sticking within the confines of a 0-03+ range to last trade -0-01 at 134-05+ (volume is light, running at ~58K). Cash Tsys run little changed to ~1.0bp richer across the curve at typing. Macro headline flow was on the light side, with the major Chinese equity indices trading either side of unchanged after Monday's regulatory-linked slide. Note that a Chinese state-run media outlet published a piece (citing analysts) flagging the "short-term" impact of Monday's headwinds for equities, pointing to expectations for the long-term uptrend to continue. Asia-Pac flow was headlined by a 1.5K lot block buy of UXYH1 (~$199K DV01 equivalent).

  • As a reminder, T-Notes went out around late NY lows on Monday after pulling away from best levels that were inspired by the sell-off in the Chinese equity space, with U.S. equities edging higher. Chinese equities recovered from worst levels of the day into the domestic close but were still comfortably lower on the day in the wake of the seemingly ever-growing regulatory oversight (with several sectors impacted since Friday's local close). Decent early volumes slowed as we moved through the NY session. The cash Tsy curve saw some twist steepening, with 2s 0.5bp richer and 30s ~2.5bp cheaper at the bell. 2-Year Tsy supply stopped through WI by 0.2bp, with the cover nudging a little below the recent averages, while dealer takedown also edged below the recent averages.
  • Tuesday's NY docket will be headlined by durable goods and consumer confidence data, as well as 5-Year Tsy supply.