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How Fast Will Global Growth Decelerate?

GLOBAL

Executive Summary:

  • Since the start of the year, we have seen that more and more leading indicators have been pointing towards slowing growth in the medium term.
  • Recession risks have been rising globally, particularly in Europe following the Russia/Ukraine shock combined with the tightening in financial conditions.
  • Even though markets have sharply recovered from their February/early March losses, it is certain that 2022 will be a challenging year for stocks.

Link to full publication:

Global Slowdown - Final.pdf


The global leading economic indicator in the chart below is the OECD ‘Diffusion’ Index, which looks at the percentage of countries with rising leading economic indicators (LEI). The number of economic countries with rising LEI fell from over 90% in November 2021 to 25% in February 2022 (total of 39 countries), and therefore is expecting a significant slowdown in the economic activity.


Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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