HSBC Concerned Around Increasing Macro Fragilities

HSBC Says: "INR rates have rallied quite sharply in July so far with 5Y ND OIS declining from a peak of 5.51% in early July to 5.19% currently. We believe that INR rates are likely to remain rangebound for now with 5Y ND OIS remaining the range of 5.0-5.50%, unless there is some reassessment of risks around inflation outlook and change in liquidity policy of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The central bank has downplayed risks on both fronts stating that any hasty withdrawal of accommodative policy will pose risk to recovery and that inflationary pressures are transient. As such, it is likely to become difficult for market participants to price in a turn in monetary policy in the near term, and, during the week, market participants will await the rollover of INR2trn of 14-day variable rate reverse repo for a confirmation of unchanged liquidity policy. We, however, remain concerned around increasing macro fragilities (higher inflation, deteriorating fiscal position) that may mean a much sharper repricing of risks at a later stage. We therefore maintain an overall bearish bias on INR rates."