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HSBC Say H2 April CPI Key For Banxico May Rate Decision

MEXICO
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  • HSBC believe that Banxico's data-dependant approach suggests the H2 CPI April data will prove key for its decision on 9 May, as core prices continue to make gradual progress.
  • While another potential 25bp rate cut, in line with their call, could be supported by core inflation dynamics, non-core prices and global risks could embolden a more cautious stance.
  • Their end-2024 inflation and policy rate forecasts stand at 3.9% and 9.5%, respectively.
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  • HSBC believe that Banxico's data-dependant approach suggests the H2 CPI April data will prove key for its decision on 9 May, as core prices continue to make gradual progress.
  • While another potential 25bp rate cut, in line with their call, could be supported by core inflation dynamics, non-core prices and global risks could embolden a more cautious stance.
  • Their end-2024 inflation and policy rate forecasts stand at 3.9% and 9.5%, respectively.