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HUF Broadly Weaker Following NBH Meeting Yesterday

HUNGARY
  • The HUF is broadly weaker today following yesterday’s NBH meeting; the central bank raised the ‘core’ policy rate by 50bps to 3.4% (as expected).
  • Market seems slightly disappointed by the press conference; the ‘little communication’ seems to have been perceived as a ‘dovish’ signal.
  • In addition, the forint (and the zloty) remains vulnerable to the current environment (i.e. geopolitical risk).
  • NBH is expected to raise its 1W depo rate by 30bps to 4.6% tomorrow; terminal rate is likely to reach nearly 5% by the end of March (another 30bps hike in March).
  • EURHUF broke above its 200DMA and is currently testing its ST resistance at 359; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 359.80 (50DMA).
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