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HUF Firms as CPI Raises Risk of Slower Rate Cuts

HUNGARY
  • Inflation data came in ahead of expectations at 0.8% M/M vs. Exp. 0.6%, 3.6% Y/Y vs. Exp. 3.5%. Food prices were higher by 0.7%, with faster rises in pork and soft drink prices tampered by deflation in the price of flour, eggs and milk. Household energy prices slipped 3.1% thanks to notable base effects, with gas lower by 6.9% and electricity down 3.2%.
  • HUF trades firmer as a result, with EUR/HUF lower by ~0.3%. Virag had warned that the pace of rate cuts is to slow across Q2 in anticipation of a bottoming-out of inflation mid-year, back above the NBH target band. This morning’s release could hasten the slower pace of rate cuts.
  • Foreign Minister Szijjarto has stated that Hungary will continue to reject migrants, maintaining a legal and physical seal at the country’s borders, regardless of any pact with Brussels. Separately, Hungarian parliament passed an extension of the current state of emergency to help government tackle the humanitarian fallout of the Ukraine war.
  • Peter Magyar, the opposition politician gaining popularity at a swift pace, is to register his political party for the European Parliament elections, meaning Orban will be watching the election authority carefully today as they look to certify the candidates in the running. The election authority meets at 4.30pm local time (1530BST).
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