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HUF Is the Weakest EM Performer This Week

HUNGARY
  • The Hungarian government's decision to ask the Constitutional Court to review a European Union top court ruling related to migration was "unacceptable" because it questioned the primacy of EU law, Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said (BBG).
  • Selling pressure on HUF has been strong this week, down 2.8% against the USD ahead of the NBH meeting next week (Nov 16).
  • The NBH is likely to accelerate the pace of its tightening cycle with a minimum 30bps hike next Tuesday.
  • The recent weakness of the HUF (against both USD and EUR), which should continue to support inflation expectations, could push NBH policymaker to proceed with a 60bps hike.
  • HUF is the weakest performing currency among the EM world (even after TRY, which is down 2.5% against USD this week).
  • USDHUF broke above the 317 level this week and is gradually approaching its 320 resistance (May 2020 highs); next level to watch above that stands at 322.60. On the downside, first support stands at 316.30, followed by 315.
  • Hungary 10Y yield retraced lower yesterday and is currently trading at the low of its 2-week range; support to watch on the downside stands at 3.78%. On the topside, key resistance remains at 4%.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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