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CEE FX: HUF, PLN Hit Cycle Highs Before Paring Gains; Munich Conference Eyed

CEE FX
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EURHUF and EURPLN both traded towards new cycle lows as Ukraine optimism carried through APAC hours and well into the European morning. Spot rates have since recovered, but price action lacks distinct conviction given the clashing effects of reciprocal tariff threats, potential delays and uncertainty on specific targets for Trump’s trade measures, leaving ranges contained overall.

  • Market participants may instead look ahead towards the Munich Security Conference tomorrow given sentiment towards CE3 assets improved sharply on the back of the Trump-Putin call headlines yesterday. Before that, US President Donald Trump has confirmed that he will unveil his reciprocal tariffs at 18:00 GMT.
  • However, both Ukrainian and Russian spokespeople have managed expectations that any armistice talks can be initiated without significant concessions on security guarantee from the other side, lowering optimism that a breakthrough can be reached in Munich.
  • Full technical updates for EURHUF and EURPLN below:
    • EURHUF has cleared support at 403.86, the Nov 7 ‘24 low, reinforcing a bearish theme. Note too that moving average studies have crossed to highlight a dominant downtrend, opening the 400.00 handle, and 398.31, the Oct 9 ‘24 low. Initial key resistance is at 408.72, the 50-day EMA.
    • A downtrend in EURPLN remains intact and the cross has again traded to a fresh cycle low today. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend with sights now on 4.1506, the 3.236 projection of the Nov 6 - 7 - 12 ‘24 price swing. A break of it would open 4.1408, the 3.382 projection. Initial resistance is marked at 4.2090, the 20-day EMA.
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EURHUF and EURPLN both traded towards new cycle lows as Ukraine optimism carried through APAC hours and well into the European morning. Spot rates have since recovered, but price action lacks distinct conviction given the clashing effects of reciprocal tariff threats, potential delays and uncertainty on specific targets for Trump’s trade measures, leaving ranges contained overall.

  • Market participants may instead look ahead towards the Munich Security Conference tomorrow given sentiment towards CE3 assets improved sharply on the back of the Trump-Putin call headlines yesterday. Before that, US President Donald Trump has confirmed that he will unveil his reciprocal tariffs at 18:00 GMT.
  • However, both Ukrainian and Russian spokespeople have managed expectations that any armistice talks can be initiated without significant concessions on security guarantee from the other side, lowering optimism that a breakthrough can be reached in Munich.
  • Full technical updates for EURHUF and EURPLN below:
    • EURHUF has cleared support at 403.86, the Nov 7 ‘24 low, reinforcing a bearish theme. Note too that moving average studies have crossed to highlight a dominant downtrend, opening the 400.00 handle, and 398.31, the Oct 9 ‘24 low. Initial key resistance is at 408.72, the 50-day EMA.
    • A downtrend in EURPLN remains intact and the cross has again traded to a fresh cycle low today. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend with sights now on 4.1506, the 3.236 projection of the Nov 6 - 7 - 12 ‘24 price swing. A break of it would open 4.1408, the 3.382 projection. Initial resistance is marked at 4.2090, the 20-day EMA.