HUF Sits at Bottom of EM Currency Pile

EUR/HUF (+0.30%) has traded with a moderate upward bias today following Wednesday’s 0.84% move lower. Broader EM currencies are struggling to make any notable gains amid the backdrop of a stronger greenback, though HUF is notably the weakest currency in the EM space and underperforms its regional peers despite little domestic news flow or data (PLN/HUF: +0.33%; CZK/HUF: +0.43%).

• Nevertheless, the primary trend direction in EUR/HUF remains down. A breach of 368.05, May 16 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 366.41, the Mar 30 2022 low. On the upside, 380.29, the Apr 20 high, marks key resistance. The combination of a stronger dollar and weaker forint puts the USD/HUF pair close to its recent highs and above the 50-day EMA which intersects today at 346.43.
• Going forward, the performance and attractiveness of the HUF carry profile remains sensitive to swings in market sentiment, domestic financial fragility and the duration of the current NBH easing cycle. Furthermore, any development on the EU funds front will be closely watched.