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Huge moves in SONIA / Euribor futures

STIR FUTURES

Significant movements in UK/Eurozone STIR markets today on the back of the ECB and BOE meetings.

  • In SONIA futures, the biggest moves have been in Whites and Reds, with the Jun-22 contract down 21.5 ticks on the day. Markets are now fully pricing a 25bp hike by March (with a 25% probability of a 50bp hike), another 25bp hike in May (with a cumulative 50% probability of a 75bp of total tightening) and three 25bp hikes cumulatively fully priced for June (in addition to today's). Another hike by September is almost fully priced.
  • In Euribor futures, the biggest moves have been seen in the Mar-23 contract which is 14 ticks lower on the day. These moves have largely been driven by Lagarde's comment that "there was unanimous concern among the Governing Council about inflation." Markets now fully price a 10bp hike by July, 25bp by October and 36bp by year-end.

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