Free Trial

Remains Vulnerable


Trend Needle Points North


Bonds Near Highs, Yield Curves Flatter


Bearish Outlook

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Unexpectedly hectic day for rates, broadly weaker 10Y futures in lock-step with S&P futures on the day. The dramatic rise in Tsy yields has been fast if not a smooth transition since the start of the year: 10YY 0.9132% Jan 1 to 1.6085% high post auction, 30YY 1.8347% on Jan 1 to 2.3944% high.

  • Yld curves mixed: short end steeper while 5s30s fell below 148.5 from 165.39 high earlier. Yields had pull back from 1Y highs/futures pared losses after mixed data: lower than expected weekly claims, stronger durables, softer GDP.
  • Second half trigger: Tsys gapped lower after a terrible $62B 7Y Note auction tailed 4bp: US Tsy $62B 7Y Note auction (91282CBP5) drew high yield 1.195% vs. 1.155% WI; (had stopped through last month on high yield of 0.754% vs. 0.757% WI) ; 2.30 bid/cover vs. 2.04 prior.
  • Dealers are cranking out their negative convexity trigger points ahead of today's move -- may need to expand their horizons: one stated convexity selling doesn't start until doesn't start until around 1.35% 10YY and tapers off at 1.60% -- which happens to be near TODAY's range for 10YY! TD Security had it right unwinding their long 5s30s steepener at 159 (165 high today, it collapsed to 148.456 low, 150.652 last).
  • Official central bank line: not worried about a spike in inflation etc, while mkt basically right where we were at start of pandemic. Opinions vary around banks trying to talk economy up after telegraphing willing to let market run hot for a while -- remains to be seen. No surprise reveal from NY Fed Williams on YCC or other measures after today's volatile session.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 4.9bps at 0.172%, 5-Yr is up 21.8bps at 0.8181%, 10-Yr is up 15.5bps at 1.5303%, and 30-Yr is up 6.3bps at 2.2956%.
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 |
MNI Chicago Bureau | +1 312-431-0089 |

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.