Hung Parliament Still Looks Most Likely Outcome In 2025

Polls have been consistently suggesting that if an election was held at the time of the survey there would be a hung parliament with Labor in minority government. The July Newspoll from The Australian is consistent with this view. The prospect of losing its lower house majority plus rate cuts appearing to be some way off or rates possibly rising further, make an early election look less likely. The government has to hold a vote before mid-May 2025.

• Newspoll reports a 2pp increase in the opposition Coalition’s primary support to 38% with the incumbent Labor party up 1pp to 33%. The Greens are stable on 13%. This results in a two-party preferred split of 51:49 in favour of the government.
• In the event of a minority Labor government, the Coalition is unlikely to provide support. The other options would be to govern with support of Teal independents, assuming enough hold onto their seats, or with the Greens. The latter would be highly likely to require a policy shift to the left.
• While voters still have PM Albanese as the preferred PM, the gap narrowed 1pp. When looking at leaders, 35% didn’t know who they would want to lead the Labor party and 39% the Coalition. Australians do not seem convinced by the political leadership.