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ICIS TTF Sep 23/Dec23 Contango Falls on Australia Strike Worries

NATURAL GAS

The Sep 23/ Dec 23 TTF contango has reduced by around EUR2/MWh since news emerged of possible industrial action at Australian LNG facilities, according to ICIS.

  • Europe’s increasing exposure to global LNG volumes means that if Asia had to backfill Australian LNG it would require a greater call on US LNG, creating competition between the basins for spare cargoes.
  • The strikes could threaten around 10% of global LNG supply, while the three plants have been the source of 27% total Japanese supply so far in 2023, according to ICIS.
  • Added to this was short-covering as traders looked to capitalise on a bearish market, with significant margin calls required as the ICIS TTF rose by 40%.
  • According to ICIS, such events demonstrate how Europe is now linked to global gas markets, with volatility set to be the ‘new normal’.
    • Energy BulletsCommodities
    Energy BulletsCommodities

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