ID Group Vulnerable Despite RN Gains In EP Election

Following th 6-9 June European Parliament elections, focus turns to the future trajectories of the political groups within the EP, most notably those on the right and far-right of the spectrum. These are the conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the right-wing nationalist Identity and Democracy (ID) groups.

• In order to be officially recognised a group must have at least 3.3% of the total (23 MEPs) hailing from at least one-quarter of member states (seven countries). The ID group, which now contains the largest single party in the EP (France's Rassemblement National, RN), risks not reaching these criteria.
• ID has 58 MEPs, down 18 following the expulsion of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party pre-election, from nine member states. There is the prospect the ECR seeks to lure some of the smaller parties over, making it the dominant political group on the right and potentially larger than the liberal Renew Europe, thereby becoming the third-largest in the EP.
• The deadline for formalising groups is 17 July. There 95 non-inscrit (non-aligned) MEPs, many of whom will recieve overtures from the ECR or ID in the coming weeks. However, RN leaders will be distracted in the coming weeks by the French legislative elections, giving the ECR more of an opportunity to win over ID members and NI MEPs.
• The collapse of ID would be a notable blow to Marine Le Pen's party at the European level as it would lose both funding and procedural priviliges in the EP.