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IDR & THB Best Performers For The Week, Amid Broad USD Weakness

ASIA FX

USD/Asia NDF pairs are mostly away from recent lows, as a modest risk off tone emanates from the G10 space. Spot levels are still firmer for some currencies, reflecting catch up to Thursday's USD weakness post the CPI print. Looking ahead, Monday delivers the China 1yr MLF rate outcome, no change expected (2.75% currently). India wholesale prices and trade figures are also due, along with Indonesian trade data.

  • USD/CNH tracked USD/JPY lower in early trade, getting close to 6.7200, but has spent the remainder of the session recovering. We last tracked 6.7465/70. The CNY fixing was neutral, while Dec trade figures were slightly better than expected.
  • USD/KRW 1 month was also weaker in the first part of the session before rebounding back above 1240, last near 1244, +0.44% for the session. The BoK hiked by 25bps as expected, but a pause could be on the cards at the February meeting.
  • Spot USD/IDR is down a further 1% to 15183, while the 1 month NDF is unchanged at 15162. This is fresh lows in USD/IDR back to late September/early October. Note the simple 200-day MA sits at 15054.
  • USD/INR 1 month NDF is slightly higher at 81.50, +0.30% for the session versus NY closing levels. Still, onshore spot remains sub the 100-day MA (81.62), last at 81.395. Yesterday's headline inflation data surprised on the downside, 5.72% y/y, versus 5.90% expected. Core inflation remained sticky though, above 6%.
  • USD/THB tracked to fresh lows at 33.10 before finding some support, last around 33.18. Still the baht is 2.55% stronger for the week, only shaded by IDR in terms of best performer within the region for the week. The baht remains a preferred play on the China re-opening theme.

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