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IEA Flags "Materially Weaker" Q4 Refining Than Expected

REFINING

The latest monthly IEA report points to “materially weaker” global refinery runs in Q4 than expected.

  • It said that extended US maintenance and refinery outages in Europe and the Middle East have depressed activity.
  • The IEA also said collapsing margins in late September/Early-October have contributed to refinery weakness.
  • Q4 throughput is now estimated by the IEA at 81.9mn bpd, about 725k bpd below last month’s report.
  • The IEA estimates 2023 runs will increase by 1.6mn bpd y/y to reach 82.4mn bpd, and 880k bpd in 2024.

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