IEA Raised 2023 Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 2.3mbpd

Global oil demand growth for this year has been revised up by 100kbpd to 2.3mbpd to reach 101.9mbpd in 2023, driven by growth in China, India and Brazil according to the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report.

• Chinese demand will make up to 77% of global oil demand growth for this year, compared with last month’s estimates of 75%.
• IEA lowered the 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 100kbpd to 900kbpd to reach 102.7mbpd, as energy efficiency gains and deteriorating economic climate weigh on oil demand.
• Global oil output is forecast to increase by 1.5mbpd in 2023 and by 1.7mbpd in 2024. Iran is on track to rank as the world’s second biggest source of growth after the US.
• Global oil production rose by 270kbpd in September to 101.6mbpd, driven by higher output from Nigeria and Kazakhstan.
• Refinery margins fell sharply over the course of September into October, due to declining gasoline and fuel oil cracks, while remaining above the seasonal average. Global refinery throughput rates reached a summer peak of 83.6mbpd in August. Refinery crude runs are expected to rise by 1.7mbpd in 2023 and by 1mbpd next year.
• Russian oil exports in September rose by 460kbpd to 7.6mbpd, with crude accounting for 250kbpd of the increase.
• Higher oil prices have caused demand destruction in several markets. US gasoline consumption in September fell to a two-decade low.
• Observed global oil stocks declined by 63.9mb in August, with crude oil down by 102.3mb.