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IEA says Oil Market Stretched in 2023

OIL

IEA report shows world oil supply struggling to meet demand in 2023.

  • 2022 global oil demand is kept unchanged at 99.4mbpd and global oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.6mbpd to 99.8mbpd.
  • World oil demand is forecast at 101.6mbpd in 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Higher prices and a weaker economic outlook are moderating consumption increases but China will drive gains next year. Growth is seen accelerating from 1.8mbpd in 2022 to 2.2mbpd in 2023 led by non-OECD economies.
  • World oil supply is forecast at 101.1mbpd in 2023. Non-OPEC+ is set to lead world supply growth through next year, adding 1.9mbpd in 2022 and 1.8mbpd in 2023
  • 2023 oil output from OPEC+ may fall due to shut in Russian volumes and declines outside the Middle East. Assuming Libya rebounds, OPEC+ production could increase 2.6mbpd, eroding its spare capacity cushion.
  • Global refining capacity is set to expand by 1mbpd in 2022 and 1.6mbpd in 2023, boosting throughputs by 2.3mbpd and 1.9mbpd. Product markets, especially diesel and kerosene are expected to remain tight.
  • Observed global oil inventories increased by 77mbbls in April. OECD industry stocks were 2,669mbbls but still 290.3mbbls below the 2017-2021 average.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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