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IFO Slumps as Expectations Deteriorate

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY JUN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE 88.5 (FCST 90.7); MAY 91.7

GERMANY JUN IFO CURRENT COND 93.7 (FCST 93.5); MAY 94.8

GERMANY JUN IFO EXPECTATIONS 83.6 (FCST 88.1); MAY 88.3

The German IFO survey weakened across the board in June, led by a decline in outlooks.

  • The Business Climate index fell 3.2 points to 88.5, against expectations of a more mild one-point decline.
  • Current Conditions moderated by 1.1 points, whilst Expectations slid by 4.7 points. The latter was a decent miss on the 0.2-point decline expected by consensus.
  • Manufacturing, trade and construction sentiment slumped to November/December 2022 levels.
  • Services also lost momentum, assessing future outlooks as significantly more pessimistic.
  • This in combination with weakening June PMI data implies outlooks are worsening for the already-contractive German economy.
  • The Bundesbank's latest June projections see the German economy contracting by -0.3% in 2023. Yet a continuation of the downturn seen in June data would imply a more pronounced contraction.

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