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IFO Summer Projections See Stronger Deceleration in 2024 CPI

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

The IFO summer projections for the German economy were slightly more optimistic than the Bundesbank's semi-annual projections released last week (see here).

  • IFO sees GDP contracting by -0.4% in 2023, before recovering to +1.5% in 2024. This is 0.1pp weaker than the BuBa June forecast for 2023, however represents a 0.3pp stronger uptick than BuBa in 2024.
  • IFO projects German inflation to ease to +5.5% in 2023, before falling back to +1.9% in 2024. These forecasts are lower than the +6.0% for 2023 and substantially softer than the +3.1% for 2024 Bundesbank projections.
  • The 2024 deceleration to below the ECB's target inflation rate of 2% is largely due to the scaling back of energy and food inflation forecasts.

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