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Ifo Survey Points To Shallower Winter Recession

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY NOV IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE 86.3 (FCST 85.0); OCT 84.5r

GERMANY OCT NOV CURRENT ASSESSMENT 93.1 (FCST 93.9); OCT 94.2r

GERMANY NOV IFO EXPECTATIONS 80.0 (FCST 77.0); OCT 75.9r

  • The November IFO survey recorded an improvement in both the headline business sentiment index, boosted by improved outlooks.
  • Despite the current assessment of conditions worsening due to weak new orders, business expectations lifted off 2020 lows, breaking a five-month fall.
  • The report signals that the anticipated recession is projected to be less severe than initially expected, with IFO looking for a -0.05% q/q contraction. Filled gas reserves, a warm start to winter and government energy support packages have boosted expectations across manufacturing, services, trade and construction.
  • Only the energy-intensive production industry signalled worsening expectations, remaining severely hampered by high energy prices and cutting back on production. In the latest September data energy-intensive production was close to 10% lower.

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