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IFO Surveys Pricing In Significant Economic Slowdown

EUROPE
BulletMarketsFixed IncomeForeign Exchange
  • Euro leading indicators have been fading in the past two months following the Ukraine invasion.
  • The 19-nation bloc economy is currently being challenged by higher energy prices and tightening lending conditions.
  • The chart below shows that the IFO Business Expectations survey has historically acted a strong 4M leading economic indicator of Euro industrial production (proxy for real economic activity).
  • With the IFO survey falling to its lowest level since May 2020, recession risks have been surging.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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  • Euro leading indicators have been fading in the past two months following the Ukraine invasion.
  • The 19-nation bloc economy is currently being challenged by higher energy prices and tightening lending conditions.
  • The chart below shows that the IFO Business Expectations survey has historically acted a strong 4M leading economic indicator of Euro industrial production (proxy for real economic activity).
  • With the IFO survey falling to its lowest level since May 2020, recession risks have been surging.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI