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IMF Head Says Rates May Need To Stay Higher For Longer After Growth Upgrade

UK

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is holding a presser alongside IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva discussing the UK economy. Comes after the IMF revised up its real GDP growth forecasts for the UK. IMF now forecasting growth of 0.4% in 2023 compared to its previous expectation of a 0.3% contraction. Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvwYOJ9Dcwo

  • Georgieva: 'UK authorities have taken decisive and responsible steps in recent months...UK officials' efforts and lower energy prices are having a positive effect...UK inflation reflects war in Ukraine, tight labour market...BoE tightening has been 'very responsible'...recent budgets align fiscal and monetary policy...financial stability has been restored after pension fund stress in 2022.'
  • Georgieva: 'We may seen interest rates staying higher for a longer period...Fiscal policy needs to fight inflation, rebuild fiscal buffers....In medium term fiscal policy needs to ensure adequate service delivery in healthcare, boost investment.'
  • Georgieva: 'UK business survey's show benefit of more predictable relationship with EU...[on tax cuts] UK gov't is right to prioritise fight against inflation.'
  • Georgieva: 'There should be not premature exit from tighter UK financial conditions because of inflation risks...policymakers need to stay vigilant and data-driven on inflation.'
Politically, the IMF's forecast upgrade could offer some respite to PM Rishi Sunak's gov't, which faces weak opinion polling numbers on the economy (historically a strength of his centre-right Conservative Party). However, with inflation risks remaining present there is the potential that one of Sunak's five promises on coming to office (halving inflation by year-end) may not be met, leaving the gov't open to attack.
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