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EGBS: Impending 10-year Supply Caps Rallies In Bund Futures

EGBS
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Bund futures have recovered from yesterday evening’s Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and US-Canada tariff reprieve inspired lows. Rallies have been capped by today’s 10-year Bund supply, due at 1030GMT. Futures are -7 ticks at 127.00, with a bearish technical theme still intact.

  • The German curve has bear flattened, with 2-year yields 2bps higher and 30-year yields 0.5bps higher. Green leader Habeck re-stated his party’s position that debt brake reform for defence spending is not acceptable, but remains open to negotiation.
  • 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are biased slightly tighter, with the exception of DSLs. The 10-year OAT/Bund spread has pushed below 70bp for the first time since September in recent days.
  • PGBs lag peripheral peers at the margin after the expected ousting of the Portuguese government and with 10- & 13-Year paper set to be auctioned this morning.
  • Comments from ECB President Lagarde were not market moving, while Simkus and Centeno stuck to previous rhetoric.
  • The ECB’s forward-looking wage tracker is due at 1100GMT, though broader macro focus remains on the US CPI report at 1330GMT.
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Bund futures have recovered from yesterday evening’s Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and US-Canada tariff reprieve inspired lows. Rallies have been capped by today’s 10-year Bund supply, due at 1030GMT. Futures are -7 ticks at 127.00, with a bearish technical theme still intact.

  • The German curve has bear flattened, with 2-year yields 2bps higher and 30-year yields 0.5bps higher. Green leader Habeck re-stated his party’s position that debt brake reform for defence spending is not acceptable, but remains open to negotiation.
  • 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are biased slightly tighter, with the exception of DSLs. The 10-year OAT/Bund spread has pushed below 70bp for the first time since September in recent days.
  • PGBs lag peripheral peers at the margin after the expected ousting of the Portuguese government and with 10- & 13-Year paper set to be auctioned this morning.
  • Comments from ECB President Lagarde were not market moving, while Simkus and Centeno stuck to previous rhetoric.
  • The ECB’s forward-looking wage tracker is due at 1100GMT, though broader macro focus remains on the US CPI report at 1330GMT.