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Implications of the U.S. Services PMI Divergence

MNI (London)

The ISM Services PMI and S&P Global services PMI have diverged notably since June 2022 - and understanding the reasons for this divergence is important to gauge the implications for US economic activity.

We highlight three key grounds for divergence:

  • The ISM PMI is likely to be resilient because it has a wider range of industries, of which some have benefited from higher commodity prices
  • The ISM may have a bias towards larger firms that are more insulated from cost pressures
  • The S&P Global index is a business activity (output) index alone vs ISM’s weighted approach
See our full analysis below:

MNI ISM vs S&P Services PMI Anaysis 221103.pdf

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