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Implied Probability of a Rate Hike On June 23 Slightly Above 50%

CZECHIA
  • CNB board split for next policy meeting on June 23; while some policymakers are in favor for a rate hike next week, others are still pushing for a first hike on August 5 (as originally 'planned').Implied probability of a rate hike (according to MM) slightly above 50%.
  • On Monday, CNB policymaker Tomáš Holub mentioned in an online press conference that he was favoring a rate hike next week as CNB must tackle rising inflation expectations.
  • On Tuesday, CNB deputy governor Marek Mora also mentioned he was in favor of raising interest rates at the June 23 policy meeting to curb the rising inflationary pressures.
  • On the other hand, board member Oldrich Dedek said that it was more reasonable to leave interest rate unchanged at the next meeting following the downtick in inflation in May.
  • MPC member Vojtěch Benda mentioned that Czech rates normalization will need to start 'very soon'. Deputy governor Tomáš Nidetzký said that he is more leaning toward sending a signal that the CNB board will not tolerate higher inflation.
  • Yesterday, Economic data showed that PPI inflation rose more than expected to 5.1% IN May (4.6% exp.), up from 4.6% the previous month.
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