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Import Compression Flatters Larger Trade Surplus

CANADA
  • The merchandise trade surplus was notably larger than expected in May at C$5.3B (cons C$2.4B) after an upward revised C$2.17B.
  • Jumping above recent highs, this is a new largest surplus since 2008, whilst the Can-US surplus of C$14B is the largest on record (both nominal measures).
  • However, some of the gloss is taken away by import weakness being led by consumer goods, in a sign of softer domestic demand (with total real imports -1.4% M/M), whilst export strength was concentrated in crude oil and aircraft (total real exports +1.7%).
  • There has been very little net impact on USDCAD with the release, currently up 2pips to keep it -0.3% on the day at 1.2998 in only a partial retracement of recent large gains for the pair.
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