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Import Price Inflation Follow PPI Weaker With Improving Supply Chains

US DATA
  • Import prices ex petroleum were surprisingly soft in February, falling -0.4% M/M (cons +0.1%) after the surprise strength of the prior two months (notably +0.9% in Dec but also +0.3% in Jan).
  • It follows yesterday’s surprisingly subdued core PPI print, the simple ex food & energy version printing just 0.00% M/M (cons 0.4) in Feb after a solidly downward revised 0.13% M/M (0.49% initially).
  • CPI core goods inflation was more resilient than expected in Feb but these two more direct measures of input costs have better tracked the recent improvement in global supply chain pressures per the NY Fed’s GSCPI and could pave the way for some further disinflation ahead.

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