March 04, 2024 07:08 GMT
Imported Inflation of Interest in February CPI Print
SWITZERLAND DATA
Swiss February CPI, published at 07:30 GMT, is expected at +1.1% Y/Y (vs +1.3% prior) and +0.5% M/M (vs +0.2% prior) for the headline figure, and will be the last inflation print before the SNB's meeting on March 21st.
- After January's surprisingly soft print (which didn't see the uptick that the SNB's expected on housing and energy prices) another low print might yield a rate cut in the policy meeting later this month.
- The consensus estimate would put average headline CPI inflation for the first two months of Q1 2024 at +1.2% Y/Y, notably lower than the +1.8% Q1 forecast from the SNB's last policy statement in December.
- As the CHF saw pronounced depreciation against both the EUR and the USD recently, reversing its strength seen late last year, making imported goods and services more expensive in the country, the split between domestic and imported inflation will be insightful to watch in February.
- Alongside that, the housing and energy category remains of particular interest as it was the one the SNB expected to drive the inflation uptick at the start of 2024, and it remains possible this materializes at least partly with a lag.
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