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Impressive Bull Flattening Continues

US TSYS SUMMARY

The impressive bull flattening of the Tsy curve continued overnight Thursday, with a sea of red in risk assets (incl commodities and stocks) accompanying a global safe haven bid.

  • 10Y and 30Y at fresh post-Feb lows. Short-end/belly stronger too, but can't keep up.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 1.4bps at 0.2003%, 5-Yr is down 4.3bps at 0.7356%, 10-Yr is down 6.3bps at 1.2529%, and 30-Yr is down 6.9bps at 1.8692%. Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) up 16/32 at 134-1.5 (L: 133-16.5 / H: 134-02)
  • Once again, no single factor to point to for risk aversion: the increasing prevalence of the Delta COVID variant continues to make headlines, while Wednesday's hint from China about monetary easing pointed to potential downside economic risks emerging there.
  • Conversely, Wednesday's release of FOMC minutes didn't really change the narrative. No Fed speakers scheduled Thursday.
  • Jobless claims data at 0830ET is the data focus.
  • 1130ET sees $80B of 4-/8-week bill auction. NY Fed buys ~$8.425B of 2.25-4.5Y Tsys.
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