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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SPAIN
Pollster YouGov has published the first multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll for the upcoming 25 July general election showing the outcome on a knife-edge. While most orthodox polling shows the conservative People's Party (PP) and right-wing nationalist Vox on course for a comfortable joint majority, the MRP poll shows the two parties winning an average of 176 seats, exactly on the majority threshold in the 350-member Congress of Deputies.
- Link to MRP poll: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-repo... YouGov: "The strengths of MRP in terms of its ability to capture local variation and information mean we are able to also make models of the seat share even in small constituencies where typically sample sizes are far too small to produce any sort of reliable estimates."
- Another MRP will be published on 17 July, and will be watched closely for signs of whether the incumbent leftist coalition remains in power or if Spain could move sharply to the political right under a PP minority gov't propped up by Vox.
Chart 1. Seat Projections from YouGov MRP Poll
Source: YouGov, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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